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"Losing my faith in humanity ... one neocon at a time."

Saturday, October 23, 2004

Al Calls the Election

posted by Jazz at 10/23/2004 03:33:00 PM

NOTE: YOU ARE VIEWING AN ARCHIVED POST AT RUNNING SCARED'S OLD BLOG. PLEASE VISIT THE NEW BLOG HERE.

Al Giordano has looked into his crystal ball, analyzed all 51 of the contests in the presidential election and drawn his line in the sand. His forecast for the electoral college?

Kerry 310 - Bush 228

He lays out some very interesting scenarios to arrive at this number. Personally, I see it unfolding differently, with three assumptions:

1. The electoral college count is going to be significantly tighter, and I'm not confident which man will carry it. I'm leaning towards Kerry 275 - Bush 263.

2. The popular vote winner will very likely, once again, either lose the election or barely squeak ahead.

3. We won't know the outcome of the electoral college until at least early December, as both sides are stocking up lawyers like firewood before winter, in preparation of challenges in every state that's close.

Al's analysis is still very detailed and compelling, however. Give it a look, but here's a taste. Assuming he is correct about a veritable Kerry landslide in the EC and record high voter turnout:

The winner will be able to say, "hey, I won with the biggest voter participation ever." End of story. He will enjoy the biggest mandate since Ronald Reagan had in 1980: perhaps even bigger. Thus, the rest of the world will either be cheering a Kerry victory, viewing him as a kind of savior from that evil little man, or it will fall back in realpolitik line, kneeling before a now-elected Bush, a scenario I consider dangerous for the fate of the earth, but it is what it is, we gamblin' men and women have to acknowledge the inconvenient factors, too.