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"Losing my faith in humanity ... one neocon at a time."

Monday, October 25, 2004

Electoral College Meltdown

posted by Jazz at 10/25/2004 09:51:00 AM


Hat Tip to Taegan Goddard for this link to one of the more recent looks at the Electoral College breakdown (or meltdown) by Eric Black. While it provides a fascinating variety of scenarios, all involving battleground states that could still swing either way, Eric's final analysis is best summed up thusly:

"There are too many moving parts in the Electoral College to make a reliable projection of the electoral votes. That means there are more than enough tossup states to turn the final outcome into a rout for either side or a nail-biter that won't be decided until weeks after Election Day."

One trouble aspect, as he points out, is that "There also are quite plausible scenarios in which there would be an Electoral College tie, throwing the final decision into the House of Representatives."

This is a haunting specter hanging over the collective shoulders of the electorate like a buzzard sniffing soon to be expired prey. A number of the scenarios which Eric outlines resulting in a tie are not far-fetched at all. And if this happens, it could be the last laugh for Tom "The Hammer" DeLay. True, DeLay is, thankfully, looking like he's on is way to either being out of office, or seated in the back of the bus with little influence over the future of the GOP. But his legacy will always be the gerrymandering of Texas and getting the conservative courts to back him up on it.

No matter how well or poorly the Democrats do in the race for the White House or in trying to regain control of the Senate, there is simply no way they are taking the House in this election cycle. One of the main reasons is the seven extra seats that Tom was able to purchase with cold, hard cash down in Texas. And if the Electoral College did end in a 269-269 tie, there are more than enough red states to ensure that they would select Bush to retain the presidency, regardless of the will of the populace.

Sleep tight, moderate America.