No Help for Kerry in Iraq

CNN has picked up on the "October Surprise" theme, probably out of a feeling of desperation for something to write about until the Vice Presidential debates this week. They also point to the likelihood of any true surprise coming in the form of something over which neither party has any control. I have to agree. One thing I'm fairly sure of is that John Kerry doesn't want or need any big news on the Iraq front or any big terrorism events. This is an arena in which he can not win.

Whether some unexpected event comes in the form of good news or bad, it only serves to solidify support for Bush. If there is, as some predict, a sudden capture of a high profile terrorist like bin Laden, then that goes in Bush's favor as a sign that he is winning the war on terror. A large scale attack by terrorists in the United States, or any location where a number of Americans might be involved, will not be taken as a sign that Bush needs to go. Such an event will only drive the "security moms" further into Bush's corner, convincing them to put domestic concerns aside and go with "the guy who will win this war."

Edit: TalkLeft has more on the October Surprise.

The reason for this is simple - regardless of a lack of any credible evidence to support the theory, a majority of Americans still equate the war in Iraq with the global "war on terror." Bush and Cheney have repeated and interchanged those phrases so many times that people have bought into it fully. If we get hit hard, they will feel we need to hit back harder in Iraq. For good or for ill, Bush has won that battle in the minds of enough Americans to carry the election.

The only thing about Iraq that helps Kerry is no change in the status quo. If Iraq continues to look like a long, drawn out quagmire where additional deaths of both Americans and Iraqis keep coming in each week, people will eventually lose patience with it. History shows us, however, that our patience may be far longer than the time remaining before the upcoming elections. In his book "The Press and the Modern Presidency: Myths and Mindsets from Kennedy to Election 2000", author Louis Leibovich gives an analysis of how media coverage of war, and correspondingly the public's perceptions, become dulled with a lack of change.

The national attention span is simply not that long, and we become immunized against bad news when it is repeated over time. American deaths, at first shocking and horrifying to everyone, slowly become a sad eventuality. We still don't like it, but after seeing it so many times, the press begins to give it less coverage and Americans start to tune it out. Vietnam had to settle into that quagmire situation for several years before Americans finally turned it into a significant political negative. Even if Iraq remains in its current sorry state, it does not appear to be enough to transform this into a win for Kerry on its own.

I think the best hope for Kerry, in terms of a boost in the polls, will come from domestic issues. On Oct. 8 we will receive the last economic snapshot and jobs report prior to the election. While I acknowledge that this makes the Kerry campaign appear as pessimists, waiting like vultures for bad news to arrive, a sudden downturn in jobs creation and other key economic indicators would give credence to one of Kerry's key assertions: the Bush tax cuts are simply not working, while driving the deficit to record highs.

Should the cost of oil continue to rise, hiking up gas prices as they go, this would also be a factor that could drive the confidence of consumers in Bush's stewardship downward. Bush is caught in a bit of a trap on the oil issue. He can't really release more oil from domestic reserves to offset the price because he loudly criticized Clinton of doing just that prior to the 2000 election in an effort to help Al Gore.

It's a sad thing to say, but John Kerry's best hope right now lies in looking for bad news. This may sound like a negative for Kerry on the surface, but it has always been true - good news on any front is good news for the incumbent, whether he could truly be credited with the achievement or not. I believe Kerry has a solid enough plan for his tenure as president, both on the domestic front and in Iraq. However, he's going to need something to happen to shake the confidence that people have in George W. Bush, which seems to be primarily born of fear. That was probably Karl Rove's strategy all along, and it looks to be working.